The abstract below is from a research paper with a fascinating result. The US experienced a 20% drop in fatalities caused by car crashes, following a 2.7% drop in mileage driven. The hypothesis of the author (Michael Slivak, University of Michigan) is that the drop in mileage driven is due to fuel prices, but that it is disproportionately skewed to low income drivers, who are also high risk drivers. Combined with that is safer driving as a result of more economic driving. The benefits of a 20% drop in fatalities are huge, both in cost and economics.
Another paper by the Brookings Institute (see posting of 31 July 2008) estimates that Pay As You Drive has the potential to reduce driving by 8%. Clearly the result of Michael Slivak's paper cannot be extrapolated linearly, but it would indicate a drop in fatalities of much greater than 8%.
Abstract of Michael Slivak's paper: Trends in U.S. motor vehicle fatalities, gasoline sales, and distance driven were examined for 12 months from May 2007 through April 2008. The results show substantial year-toyear reductions in motor vehicle fatalities during this time period that cannot be fully explained by the reductions in gasoline sales and distance driven. This is especially the case for the latest two months examined (March and April 2008). Here, the reductions in motor vehicle fatalities averaged 20%, while the reductions in gasoline sales and distance driven were in low single-digits. Consequently, it appears that a major shift in driver behavior might be occurring. This shift may involve disproportionate reductions in distance driven for more risky driving conditions and for drivers with less income (who tend to have higher crash rates), as well as possible reductions in speeds as a means of increasing fuel economy. Should the March and April 2008 trends continue, the 2008 annual fatalities would drop to under 40,000 for the first time since 1961.
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